Expected Value

Susan Kelly Updated on Aug 13, 2022

The expected value is the average future value of an investment. Investors use EVs to assess the value of investments. Often, EVs are used in conjunction with their relative riskiness. MPT attempts to find the optimal portfolio allocation by analyzing investments' expected values and standard deviations. The expected value is calculated by adding all possible outcomes together with outcome will occur and then adding all those values. Investors can select the most likely outcome by calculating the expected value.

Understanding the Expected Value

One technique to calculate the EV of an investment opportunity is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis uses multivariate models and estimates probabilities to evaluate possible outcomes of a proposed investment. Investors can also use Scenario Analysis to determine if they are taking on the right level of risk based on the likely outcome of an investment.

The EV of a random variable is a measure of its distribution center. The EV is simply the average long-term value of the variable. The law of large numbers dictates that the average value of a variable converges towards the EV when the number of repetitions is close to infinity. The EV can also be called expectation, the mean, or the first moment. The EV can be calculated using single or multiple continuous and continuous variables.

The Expected Value Used In Real Life

It is useful in making decisions about real life. It helps to determine the most likely outcomes and minimizes risk. The expected value is a percentage of each outcome for each decision made. EV simply means the sum of all possible outcomes for a given decision.

One way to make an investment decision is by using the expected value. This allows us to quantify the risk factor (volatility) and integrate it into our decision-making process. Everything is a possibility in life. The expected value accurately reflects the likelihood of investing in the worst and best scenarios. It is, therefore, a useful measurement to use when making investment decisions. Calculating the values can be tedious and time-consuming for non-statisticians.

According to the theory, favorable outcomes can be achieved by choosing decisions with a positive EV. But EV is not the only factor used to make investment decisions. Other factors, such as age, risk tolerance, income, and family status, must be considered.

Expected Value in Poker

It is easy to see how EV works on the poker table. For example, think about how often you have cracked your pocket aces following a preflop all-in. Even if you had to overlook exceptional cases (rare bubble or pay jump situations in tournaments), would it have occurred to you to fold those aces? A successful poker player relies on making profitable (+EV) plays. It is not easy to spot these plays. You also need to increase volume to overcome negative variation (when you make the right play but lose the pot).

Hand Equity

This is a great bluff spot because you never draw dead when you are called. Based on how many outs you have, you have great equity. Any 8 gives you the nut straight, and any diamond completes the flush. If Villain holds a hand like T9 (as we assume), then a jack will also win you the win.

Based on your reading, you can win the pot with any of these 15 cards: 9 remaining diamonds + 3 nondiamond 8s plus 3 Jacks. Your equity, or the likelihood of winning a hand at a given time, is 34%. Although it isn't ideal, this is a great place to shove when your opponent doesn't call often.

Villain's Image

It is important to note how significant it is to assume that Villain does not have a strong hand. The Villain is aggressive and can splash around in many pots, so you are confident she can fire two bets with marginal or weak hands that will fold to a shove. Your shove is good as long as you have a solid read. What if you are wrong? What if the Villain were a very close player? Your EV will drop in this case because you are more likely to be called for shoveling.

For example, let's say the Villain is a strong player and would only place a bet on the turn if he had strong hands. The odds of Villain folding are almost zero, so you'll need to win with your draw. Calling the turn bet against such an opponent is better than shoving. This means that it can't always be an easy slam-dunk shove. This is only a significant +EV against some opponents who will fold versus your shove, at least occasionally. You can decide when to shove or fold.